Veteran Weather Station                             www.gympieweather.com

IDQ21033
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

Cancellation of Severe Thunderstorm Warning
For people in Wide Bay and Burnett and Southeast Coast Forecast Districts.

Issued at 6:04 pm Tuesday, 17 May 2022.

Severe thunderstorms are no longer occurring in QUEENSLAND.

The immediate threat of severe thunderstorms has passed, but the situation will continue to be monitored and further warnings will be issued if necessary.

Maleny Alert recorded 52mm of rainfall in the 30 minutes to 16:56

Queensland Fire and Emergency Services advises that people should:
* Beware of fallen trees and powerlines.
* Never drive, walk or ride through flood waters. If it's flooded, forget it.
* For emergency assistance contact the SES on 132 500.


Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 210. The Bureau and Queensland Fire and Emergency Services would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).

IDQ21035
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

Cancellation of Severe Thunderstorm Warning - Southeast Queensland
For people in Gold Coast Council Area.

Issued at 11:50 pm Thursday, 5 May 2022.

Severe thunderstorms are no longer affecting the Southeast Queensland area (east of Dalby from Rainbow Beach to Stanthorpe). The immediate threat of severe thunderstorms has passed, but the situation will continue to be monitored and further warnings will be issued if necessary.

Queensland Fire and Emergency Services advises that people should:
* Beware of fallen trees and powerlines.
* Never drive, walk or ride through flood waters. If it's flooded, forget it.
* For emergency assistance contact the SES on 132 500.


A more general severe thunderstorm warning remains current for parts of the Southeast Coast district.

Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 210. The Bureau and Queensland Fire and Emergency Services would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).

IDQ10810
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Saturday 30 April 2022
for the period until midnight EST Tuesday 3 May 2022.

Existing Cyclones in the  Eastern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

There are no significant tropical lows currently in the region and none are
expected for the next 7 days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Sunday          Very Low
Monday          Very Low
Tuesday         Very Low


This will be the final Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Eastern Region until 1
November 2022.

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:     less than 5%                 Moderate:     20 to 50%
Low:          5% to 20%                    High:         over  50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea
west of 160E.


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).

IDQP0005
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1557 UTC 11/02/2022
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Dovi
Identifier: 18U
Data At: 1500 UTC
Latitude: 30.1S
Longitude: 166.1E
Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km)
Movement Towards: south (180 deg)
Speed of Movement: 24 knots (45 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 70 knots (130 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 100 knots (185 km/h)
Central Pressure: 965 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 110 nm (205 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 110 nm (205 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 25 nm (45 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 25 nm (45 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds:  nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 25 nm (45 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/4.5/W0.5/24HRS STT: W0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 300 nm (555 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  11/2100: 32.4S 166.2E:     035 (070):  060  (115):  969
+12:  12/0300: 34.1S 167.0E:     050 (090):  060  (110):  970
+18:  12/0900: 35.4S 168.5E:     055 (105):  060  (110):  970
+24:  12/1500:             :              :            :
+36:  13/0300:             :              :            :
+48:  13/1500:             :              :            :
+60:  14/0300:             :              :            :
+72:  14/1500:             :              :            :
+96:  15/1500:             :              :            :
+120: 16/1500:             :              :            :
REMARKS:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Dovi is weakening as it rapidly tracks south with the
loss of the southern eye wall on IR imagery.

Intensity estimate reduced to 70kn. Dvorak DT becoming more difficult to
classify although curved band pattern 0.5-0.8 (3h average).  FT now 3.5, CI
held higher at 4.5. Objective estimates vary: ADT remains higher at 82kn (1min)
based on CI=4.7 which is rapidly reducing, while AiDT has fallen faster to 77kn
(1min) equivalent to 70kn (10min). SATCON N/A.

The wind structure is highly asymmetric (larger east of the centre) as the
system moves south at 22kn, as shown on scatterometry including ASCAT-B at
1120UTC, while microwave shows the strongest convection east of the centre.

The system is being steered by a mid-level ridge over the eastern Pacific Ocean
and an approaching upper trough from the west with high confidence based on
strong agreement amongst the range of models.

Although Dovi is being favoured by a low wind shear environment and strong
upper level outflow to the south, it is now moving over water temperatures less
than 25C.

The structure is reorganising with a strong to gale force synoptic southerly
flow to the west forecast to merge with the circulation within +6h resulting in
large region of gales about the circulation. This is coincident with the
circulation transitioning into a sub-tropical system under the influence of an
upper level trough from the west. This should ensure that the intensity remains
higher than tropical satellite metrics.

The forecast track is truncated as the system loses its tropical
characteristics, but it is likely to continue to move towards the North Island
of New Zealand.

These bulletins will no longer be provided as Norfolk Island no longer is
expecting gales.

Refer to https://www.metservice.com/warnings/home for more information.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
No further bulletins will be issued for this system.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).

IDD10610
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria
Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Saturday 30 April 2022
for the period until midnight CST Tuesday 3 May 2022.

Existing Cyclones in the  Northern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

There are no significant lows in the region and none are expected to develop
within the next 7 days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Sunday          Very Low
Monday          Very Low
Tuesday         Very Low


This will be the final Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region until 1
November 2022.

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:     less than 5%                 Moderate:     20 to 50%
Low:          5% to 20%                    High:         over  50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Ocean area south of 9S, between
125E and 142E, including the Gulf of Carpentaria, but excluding the area around
Timor (northwest of 11S 125E, 11S 128E, 9S 128E).


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).

 IDDP0002
 Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
 Northern Territory
 Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1331 UTC 26/02/2022
Name: Tropical Cyclone Anika
Identifier: 23U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 13.9S
Longitude: 127.1E
Location Accuracy: within 10nm (20 km)
Movement Towards: southwest (216 deg)
Speed of Movement: 10 knots (18 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots (95 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots (130 km/h)
Central Pressure: 988 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 20 nm (35 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 20 nm (35 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds:  nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm (35 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 140 nm (260 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  26/1800: 14.1S 126.9E:     030 (050):  050  (095):  986
+12:  27/0000: 14.2S 126.8E:     040 (075):  045  (085):  989
+18:  27/0600: 14.3S 126.7E:     055 (100):  040  (075):  992
+24:  27/1200: 14.4S 126.6E:     065 (120):  040  (075):  992
+36:  28/0000: 14.5S 125.9E:     085 (160):  035  (065):  996
+48:  28/1200: 14.7S 125.3E:     110 (205):  035  (065):  995
+60:  01/0000: 15.1S 124.2E:     135 (250):  040  (075):  993
+72:  01/1200: 15.6S 123.1E:     160 (295):  045  (085):  990
+96:  02/1200: 17.3S 120.6E:     215 (400):  060  (110):  980
+120: 03/1200: 20.1S 120.7E:     310 (570):  065  (120):  974
REMARKS:
Tropical cyclone Anika has been upgraded to category two intensify as it makes
landfall on the north Kimberley coast.

The system has been located by Wyndham radar and an SSMIS microwave pass at
0950UTC.

Satellite imagery in the last 6 hours has been characterised by strong
convective pulses over the LLCC. A tight temperature gradient and sharp edge on
the eastern side of the cloud tops indicates the continuing influence of
easterly deep layer shear. Microwave imagery in the last 6 hours has shown
tighter curvature wrapping around the LLCC to almost fully enclose the system.

Dvorak analysis is based mainly on MET and PAT because cloud features were not
clear cut due to a cirrus shield covering the system. MET is 3.0 based on a 24
hour D- trend, and PAT agrees. Final T 3.0. Intensity is raised to 50 knots (10
minute mean) based on the improved structure seen in microwave and a steady
increase in all the objective intensity aids.

CIMSS satellite winds depict diffluent upper level flow over Anika, with dual
outflow channels. The analysed deep layer shear has remained consistent at
approximately 15-20 knots, with a shear minimum further south along the
forecast track. SSTs are favourable in excess of 30 degrees. There is some
drier air to the south over the Australian continent but this should not be a
mitigating factor to development in the short term. However now that Anika is
making landfall, it is expected to begin a period of weakening in the next
24-48 hours.

The steering influences on Anika include a mid-level anticyclone over Western
Australia, and lower level monsoonal westerly flow to the north. Given these
opposing influences, Anika has been slow moving thus far. As the system moves
south, the mid-level anticyclone is expected to become the dominant steering
influence and Anika is forecast to track to the west southwest. Later in the
week, an approaching upper trough is expected to move the system towards the
southeast.

The medium to long term intensity forecast is based on the forecast track
moving offshore from the Kimberley and reaching category 3 in favourable
conditions. If it moves further west and offshore, further strengthening is
likely and Anika could reach category 4 intensity.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 26/1930 UTC.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).