Synoptic Data

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Warnings, Cyclone & Synoptic Situation:                           [See disclaimer at bottom of page.]
Cyclone information is updated @ approx 3:00pm daily AEST.
If there is the current threat of a Cyclone, updates will be given hourly.                        Copyright © 1998-2021



As issued by Bureau of Meteorology:

Severe Thunderstorm Alerts: (Check date and time)

IDQ21033
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
for HEAVY RAINFALL

For people in parts of Central Highlands and Coalfields Forecast District.

Issued at 11:28 pm Monday, 6 December 2021.

Severe thunderstorms developing in Central Queensland.

Weather Situation: Slow-moving thunderstorms may produce localised heavy rainfall in Central Queensland.

Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Emerald, Blackwater and Comet.

Queensland Fire and Emergency Services advises that people should:
* Never drive, walk or ride through flood waters. If it's flooded, forget it.
* Seek shelter, preferably indoors and never under trees.
* Avoid using the telephone during a thunderstorm.
* Beware of fallen trees and powerlines.
* For emergency assistance contact the SES on 132 500.

The next warning is due to be issued by 2:30 am.

Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 210. The Bureau and Queensland Fire and Emergency Services would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532). Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).

Severe Thunderstorm Area Information: (Check date and time)

IDQ21035
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

Cancellation of Severe Thunderstorm Warning - Southeast Queensland
For people in Gympie, Somerset, Sunshine Coast and Noosa Council Areas.

Issued at 11:15 pm Saturday, 4 December 2021.

Severe thunderstorms are no longer affecting the Southeast Queensland area (east of Dalby from Rainbow Beach to Stanthorpe).

A separate Severe Weather Warning remains active for the Wide Bay and Burnett districts.

The situation will continue to be monitored and further warnings will be issued if necessary.

Multiple locations over the border have recorded damaging wind gusts in excess of 90 km/h, peaking at 139 km/h at Byron Bay.

Reports of golf ball sized hail at Hatton Vale.

Queensland Fire and Emergency Services advises that people should:
* Beware of fallen trees and powerlines.
* Never drive, walk or ride through flood waters. If it's flooded, forget it.
* For emergency assistance contact the SES on 132 500.

A more general severe thunderstorm warning remains current for parts of the Wide Bay and Burnett district.

Qld. Current Cyclone Situation: (Updated Hourly)

IDQ10810
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 2:40 pm EST on Monday 6 December 2021
for the period until midnight EST Thursday 9 December 2021.

Existing Cyclones in the  Eastern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

There are no significant tropical lows in the Eastern Region at present.

In the longer term a weak tropical low may develop in the far northeast of the
region near the Solomon Sea. This system may develop this weekend.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Tuesday         Very Low
Wednesday       Very Low
Thursday        Very Low



NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:     less than 5%                 Moderate:     20 to 50%
Low:          5% to 20%                    High:         over  50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea
west of 160E.


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).

IDQP0005
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN - EAST COAST:

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1317 UTC 05/03/2021
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Niran
Identifier: 17U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 18.7S
Longitude: 159.1E
Location Accuracy: within 15 nm [30 km]
Movement Towards: east southeast [115 deg]
Speed of Movement: 25 knots [46 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 110 knots [205 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 155 knots [285 km/h]
Central Pressure: 931 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 240 nm [445 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 140 nm [260 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 140 nm [260 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 25 nm [45 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm [20 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T6.5/6.5/D1.5/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 240 nm [445 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  05/1800: 19.9S 161.2E:     035 [060]:  110  [205]:  931
+12:  06/0000: 21.1S 163.2E:     045 [085]:  110  [205]:  930
+18:  06/0600: 22.4S 165.6E:     055 [105]:  100  [185]:  941
+24:  06/1200: 23.6S 168.0E:     070 [125]:  090  [165]:  950
+36:  07/0000: 25.9S 173.0E:     095 [180]:  070  [130]:  967
+48:  07/1200: 28.0S 178.8E:     135 [250]:  050  [095]:  982
+60:  08/0000: 29.4S 176.2W:     170 [315]:  045  [085]:  983
+72:  08/1200: 30.0S 172.2W:     200 [370]:  045  [085]:  981
+96:  09/1200:             :              :            :
+120: 10/1200:             :              :            :
REMARKS:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Niran continues its rapid east southeast track and has
now reached category 5 intensity having a well defined eye surrounded by very
deep convection.

Intensity estimated at 110kn based on Dvorak CI=6.5 based on DT=6.5-7.0 using
time averaged eye pattern W to CMG surround and 0.5 adjustment; MET at 6.5 [D
1.5/24HRS]. CIMSS ADT at 6.3 although recent raw T-nos at 7.0 and SATCON
increasing to 130kn [1min averaged].

The wind structure is based upon a combination of ASCAT and earlier SMAP and
SMOS passes confirming the large extent of gales northeast of the centre.

Northerly shear is increasing -CIMSS indicates 20kn as upper level northwesterly
winds extend over the centre. While this shear will increase and weaken the
system, model guidance shows a vertically stacked system remaining through the
next 12-18 hours and hence it is possible some further intensification occurs
overnight supported by sea surface termpatures above 28C and the strong outflow
channels poleward.

There is high confidence that the system will maintain an east-southeast track
passing near New Caledonia on Saturday. This motion will continue as a result of
an upper
trough that is currently moving across eastern Australia.

The circulation should then be weakening under northwesterly shear and cooler
SSTs.

As Niran will cross 160E before 1800UTC, responsibility is now passed to Fiji
RSMC.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
TThere will be no further bulletins for this system. Please refer to Fiji
Meteorological Service www.met.gov.fj for further updates.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).

N.T. Current Cyclone Situation: (Updated Hourly)

IDD10610
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria
Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Monday 6 December 2021
for the period until midnight CST Thursday 9 December 2021.

Existing Cyclones in the  Northern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

There are no significant tropical lows in the region and none are expected to
develop during the next three days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Tuesday         Very Low
Wednesday       Very Low
Thursday        Very Low



NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:     less than 5%                 Moderate:     20 to 50%
Low:          5% to 20%                    High:         over  50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Ocean area south of 9S, between
125E and 142E, including the Gulf of Carpentaria, but excluding the area around
Timor (northwest of 11S 125E, 11S 128E, 9S 128E).


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).

 IDDP0002
 Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
 Northern Territory
 Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN - NORTH COAST:

IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1935 UTC 23/03/2019
Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Trevor
Identifier: 20U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 18.4S
Longitude: 135.2E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: south southwest [214 deg]
Speed of Movement: 12 knots [22 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 998 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: n/a
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 200 nm [370 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  24/0000: 19.1S 134.8E:     030 [060]:  030  [055]: 1000
+12:  24/0600: 19.7S 134.8E:     045 [080]:  030  [055]:  999
+18:  24/1200: 20.3S 134.8E:     055 [105]:  030  [055]:  999
+24:  24/1800: 20.8S 134.9E:     070 [130]:  030  [055]:  998
+36:  25/0600: 22.0S 136.2E:     090 [165]:  030  [055]:  999
+48:  25/1800: 22.8S 138.4E:     110 [200]:  030  [055]:  999
+60:  26/0600: 23.5S 139.9E:     130 [235]:  030  [055]:  998
+72:  26/1800: 24.2S 142.8E:     145 [270]:  030  [055]:  999
+96:  27/1800: 26.8S 146.2E:     190 [355]:  030  [055]:  994
+120: 28/1800:             :              :            :
REMARKS:
At 3:30am CST Sunday, the remnants of tropical cyclone Trevor were located by
satellite over land around 320km inland from the southwestern coast of the Gulf
of Carpentaria. Deep convection is now completely absent from the central
circulation, with the nearest convective band displaced some 120 nautical miles
to the east.

Dvorak analysis is not possible with the system over land. There is currently
little in the way of peripheral observations. McArthur River Mine, some 250km to
the north of the current position, was the last station to experience marginal
category 1 wind gusts prior to 8pm CST Saturday. Standard decay rates suggest
the system would be close to or below TC thresholds. Intensity is therefore set
at 30 knots.

NWP models are in good agreement with a southwest track initially, steered by
the mid level subtropical ridge. The system will be steered to the south during
Sunday as an approaching shortwave trough weakens the ridge. The remnants of the
cyclone will track southeast on Monday towards Queensland.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
There will be no further bulletins for this system.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).

Disclaimer: Do not base any important decisions on any information that you may receive from this site. Weather data from this site is a representation of current and past conditions in this local area and includes links to other sites. Do not use this information for emergency situations. In emergencies, please refer to the Bureau of Meteorology warning page: http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/warnings.shtml.